Tina Fordham opened the session with a compelling call to prepare for the challenges of 2025, noting that recent global elections reveal a consistent pattern of voters punishing incumbents. The U.S. exemplifies this trend, with the 2024 elections underscoring a shift in voter priorities—price stability now outweighs employment as a critical concern.
Fordham highlighted the emergence of a new geopolitical risk supercycle driven by complex factors such as climate change, immigration, and civil unrest. These forces, coupled with the internet's ability to amplify unrest and organise populist movements, are accelerating the collapse of traditional government structures and fueling global instability.
In the U.S., Trump’s decisive victory and the Republican control of Congress mark a new chapter. However, with slim majorities, party discipline will determine his administration's effectiveness. Fordham emphasised that Trump’s policies, including tariffs and infrastructure for mass deportations, could significantly exacerbate inflation—an underappreciated yet critical dynamic.
Rather than focusing solely on Trump’s next moves, Fordham urged the audience to consider how other global powers, particularly China and Russia, might respond and how their actions could ripple through the EU. Leaders must adopt non-linear thinking, embracing a spectrum of outcomes to navigate these uncertain times effectively.
She closed with a call to action for business leaders to re-engage in political discourse, advocating for collaborative efforts to shape favourable outcomes. Her parting words resonated with attendees: "Fortune favours the brave, but change favours the prepared mind."
Audience poll:
Which geopolitical issue do you think will have the most impact on European non-listed real estate over the next 12 months?
- US foreign policy and trade relations – 33%
- Rising tensions in the Middle East – 5%
- Europe-Asia trade dynamics and supply change shifts – 9%
- Russian-Ukraine conflict and its economic effects – 36%
- Climate policy and global regulatory changes – 14%
- Other – 4%
What potential consequences of the US election result concerns you the most?
- Increased economic volatility – 17%
- Changes in interest rates – 17%
- Foreign policy changes – 46%
- Shifts in climate policy – 11%
- Regulatory or tax policy changes – 6%
- No significant concerns – 3%
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