Beginning on an optimistic note, Gillian kicked off the conference declaring the outlook ahead is not actually as gloomy as we fear.
Taking the audience on a trip down memory lane, Gillian compared the times pre-GFC to the age old proverb that ‘Generals are taught to fight the last war’, meaning that in the world that we live in where there are economists churning out economic analysis every day, it is critical to use the correct data and metrics to analyse the financial landscape, and we must not always rely on past performance to predict the future. During the ‘Great Moderation’, when economists sat back believing everything was good and no one was predicting a recession, only the ‘financial weeds’ sitting in the belly of most financial and press institutions were looking at alternative data sets highlighting leverage loans and CLO’s – highlight irrational behavior which could have helped to foresee the catastrophe that lay ahead. Rather than obsessing over the inverted yield curve, Gillian suggested that the financial cycle is a more reliable indicator and that the cycle tends to boom ahead of a bust and in such, the current outlook is not that bad.
There has been remarkably little to see on the consumer price index (CPI) since 2005 and growth is at around 3% which is average. This said, Europe is probably heading for a slowdown and the same with the US but to a lesser extent. Of course, this was followed by a ‘but’. This prediction from Gillian was based on a business as usual scenario but this is not insulated from external shocks she cited as trade wars, environmental threat, and political instability with the rise of populism, which are all ever present issues that are not to be taken lightly. The Bank of England now champions green forecasting in its policy, the Financial Times itself looks more at macroeconomic threats and metrics once used by development economists are now considered as mainstream. We have come a long way but to be successful we have to think outside of the box as the events that will cause the most damage are the ones we expect the least.